应对疫情冲击的财税政策建议

公共财政的主要职能就是提供满足公共需要的产品与服务,公共卫生是其重要组成部分。面对新冠肺炎疫情,财政需要在支持抓好疫情防控工作的前提下,深入系统分析新冠肺炎疫情对我国经济社会发展造成的影响,进一步发挥财政职能作用,帮助企业渡过难关、恢复生产,努力保持经济社会平稳健康发展。     

Is there a role for uncertainty in forecasting output growth in OECD countries? Evidence from a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive model

This paper uses a time-varying parameter-panel vector autoregressive (TVP-PVAR) model to analyze the role played by domestic and US news-based measures of uncertainty in forecasting the growth of industrial production of 12 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Based on a monthly out-of-sample period of 2009:06 to 2017:05, given an in-sample of 2003:03 to 2009:05, there are only 46% of cases where domestic uncertainty can improve the forecast of output growth relative to a baseline monetary TVP-PVAR model, which includes inflation, interest rate and nominal exchange rate growth, besides output growth. Moreover, including US uncertainty does not necessarily improve the forecasting performance of output growth from the TVP-PVAR model which includes only the domestic uncertainty along with the baseline variables. So, in general, while uncertainty is important in predicting the future path of output growth in the 12 advanced economies considered, a forecaster can do better in majority of the instances by just considering the information from standard macroeconomic variables.     

东三省现代化经济体系创新要素结构优化策略研究

在经济新常态背景下,构建东三省现代化经济体系创新要素结构测度体系,并以长三角地区创新要素结构为参照系,对东三省现代化经济体系创新要素结构现状进行比较分析。在此基础上,从基础条件、市场条件及环境条件3个方面,对东三省现代化经济体系创新要素结构影响因素进行系统性分析。基于创新要素结构影响因素的分析,从要素间结构与要素内结构两方面研究东三省现代化经济体系创新要素结构优化策略。     

Europe's income convergence and the latest global financial crisis

This paper examines the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on economic growth and convergence across European countries from 1973 to 2012. Employing cross-sectional and dynamic panel data techniques, the results show that the global financial crisis has brought a greater absolute convergence rate rather than divergence, affected richer members more heavily and, presumably, allowed less developed members to recover more quickly. We find evidence that creating the European Union has contributed toward economic growth and convergence; meanwhile, no similar evidence is found concerning the European Monetary Union. Moreover, we present evidence that both the average output per capita and the rate of convergence during the financial crisis fell around 7%.     

内地与香港CEPA经济效应的实证分析

本文从实证分析的角度出发,运用区内贸易比重、巴拉萨模型、区内贸易流量、格鲁伯-劳艾德指标等工具,对祖国内地与香港CEPA的经济效应进行系统研究。CEPA的实施对香港、祖国内地的贸易影响不尽相同,就建立区域经济一体化的成本而言,香港比内地要低。     

上市公司利润包装的现象,方式与识别理论研究

利润包装,又称利润操纵,是近几年来会计理论界和证券实业界出现频率较多的一个新名词,它一般指上市公司为了实现某种动机对本公司实现的利润情况,进行人为调节的一种违法行为。在对上市公司利润包装的现象、方法分析基础上,识别利润包装的方法。     

论我国高新技术产品对外贸易与经济增长

本文在我国高新技术产品对外贸易大幅增长的背景下,以1991-2005年高新技术产品进出口额数据为基础,运用计量经济学方法,对高新技术产品对外贸易对经济增长的作用进行了实证研究。通过分析发现,高新技术产品对外贸易已成为我国经济增长的一个亮点,最后对未来如何更好地发展高新技术产品对外贸易提出了政策建议。     

长江经济带多极网络空间发展格局研究——“经济网络—多增长极—共生关系”分析框架的构建与应用

在区域经济发展过程中,空间极化与空间经济网络发育共进,多个增长极与空间经济网络有机结合和共生形成多极网络空间组织。实施长江经济带发展战略,要把构建和优化多极网络空间发展格局作为一个重点。基于“经济网络—多增长极—共生关系”的分析框架,利用2000—2017年A股上市公司的总部—分支数据构建长江经济带空间经济网络,通过节点度、网络密度、点度中心度、网络连通度等分析其发育水平,并根据城市综合指数（标准化后的节点度与规模加权经济增长率之和）判定增长极范围及其核心城市,进而运用共生度模型检验增长极与空间经济网络之间的共生关系,结果发现：长江经济带的空间经济网络发育水平稳步上升并趋于成熟,同时已形成长三角、长江中游、成渝三大增长极;三大增长极之间的经济联系持续增强,其中,长三角增长极与长江中游增长极的联系强度最大,长三角增长极与成渝增长极次之,而长江中游增长极与成渝增长极的联系强度较小;增长极与空间经济网络之间存在正向非对称互惠共生关系,增长极对空间经济网络的促进大于空间经济网络对增长极的促进,空间经济网络对增长极的促进作用不断增强,而增长极对空间经济网络的促进作用呈现先减弱后增强的趋势。可见,多极网络空间组织在长江经济带已初步形成,应在进一步推动三大增长极加快发展的同时,加强增长极之间的互动,建立多维度多层次的更加紧密的空间经济联系,提升空间经济网络的现代化水平,促进长江经济带多极网络空间发展格局的持续优化。     

技术分析的经济收益与市场有效性

技术分析是现代金融市场中一种重要的投资分析工具。本文基于沪深两地的证券市场,对双重移动均线交错、交易区间突破、亚历山大过滤规则、相对强度指数等常用的技术交易规则进行了全面的实证检验,采用了参数优化和样本外测试的方法来解决数据过度挖掘的问题,考虑了交易成本和风险因素,发现技术分析确实能够产生显著的经济收益,这说明我国证券市场尚未达到弱式有效。     

The effect of foreign trade and investment liberalization on spatial concentration of economic activity

I examine the varying responses of countries to foreign trade and direct investment liberalization on spatial concentration of their economic activity by taking into consideration moderating factors such as their market size and level of economic development. I argue that liberalization increases the concentration under normal conditions but large market size, and underdevelopment can disperse economic activity. Using data from 168 countries for the period of time starting in 1980s, I found support for all hypotheses.